Quantifying the Causal Impact of Employment Trends on Academic Performance Using Time-Series and Public Interest Data in Indonesia

Authors

  • Alif Noorachmad Muttaqin Telkom University
  • Muharman Lubis Telkom University
  • Tomi Mulhartono Telkom University
  • Arif Ridho Lubis Politeknik Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26877/d8ph2h66

Keywords:

Causal Inference, CGPA, Google Trends, Granger Causality, Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

This study quantifies the causal impact of employment trends on academic performance using a hybrid model of survey data and time-series public interest data from Google Trends in Indonesia. Employing Granger causality and regression analysis, the research investigates eight determinants of GPA and their relationship to labor indicators. A purposive sample of 40 respondents and secondary data from 2011–2019 were analyzed. Granger tests reveal significant one-way causality from employment to GPA indicators, particularly in parental monitoring (F = 7.06; p < 0.05) and learning motivation (F = 9.68; p < 0.05). Regression analysis supports these findings with R² values above 0.50. Results highlight the potential of integrating behavioral data into educational analytics. This research contributes methodological innovation by incorporating public interest data to explain academic outcomes, with implications for predictive modeling in education policy and planning.

Author Biographies

  • Alif Noorachmad Muttaqin, Telkom University

    Master of Information System Study Program, School of Industrial Engineering, Telkom University, Main Campus (Bandung Campus), Jl. Telekomunikasi no. 1, Bandung 40257, West Java, Indonesia

  • Muharman Lubis, Telkom University

    Master of Information System Study Program, School of Industrial Engineering, Telkom University, Main Campus (Bandung Campus), Jl. Telekomunikasi no. 1, Bandung 40257, West Java, Indonesia

  • Tomi Mulhartono, Telkom University

    Information System Study Program, School of Industrial Engineering, Telkom University, Main Campus (Bandung Campus), Jl. Telekomunikasi no. 1, Bandung 40257, West Java, Indonesia

  • Arif Ridho Lubis, Politeknik Negeri Medan

    Computer Engineering and Informatics, Politeknik Negeri Medan, Jl. Almamater No.1 Medan 20155, North Sumatra, Indonesia

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Published

2025-08-28

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 4 (2025): August-October

Section

Articles