Kernel Density and Spatial Modeling of Informal Settlement Concentration: Methodology and Findings from Palembang, Indonesia

Authors

  • Sukmaniar Universitas Gadjah Mada Indonesia
  • Umi Listyaningsih Universitas Gadjah Mada Indonesia
  • Salut Muhidin Macquarie University Australia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26877/asset.v8i1.2980

Keywords:

Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), ROC–AUC Validation, GIS, Slum Distribution, Spatial Analysis, Informal Settlements Mapping, Musi River, Palembang, Indonesia

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has intensified the growth of slum settlements in Indonesian cities, including Palembang, where informal housing commonly develops along riverbanks. This study aimed to identify and evaluate the spatial distribution and density of slum areas in Palembang City through a Geographic Information System (GIS)–based approach combining Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Receiver Operating Characteristic–Area Under Curve (ROC–AUC) analysis. Primary spatial data were obtained from 382 household survey points representing 64 slum polygons across 13 sub-districts, supplemented by administrative boundary and land-use data from the Palembang City Government. Spatial analysis and validation were conducted using ArcGIS 10.3 software. The KDE results showed density values ranging from 0 to 58.1123 units per 100 m², with the highest concentrations found along the Musi River corridor, decreasing outward from the riverbanks. Model validation achieved an AUC value of 0.968 (96.8%), demonstrating excellent predictive accuracy. These spatial outcomes provide actionable guidance for policymakers by identifying priority zones for sanitation and drainage upgrades, flood-resilient housing design, and targeted relocation planning. The study highlights the practical role of GIS-based quantitative modelling in supporting evidence-based slum management and urban infrastructure planning in Indonesia. 

Author Biographies

  • Sukmaniar, Universitas Gadjah Mada

    Postdoctoral Program, Graduate School, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jalan Kaliurang, Sekip Utara, Bulaksumur, Sleman 55281, Indonesia

  • Umi Listyaningsih, Universitas Gadjah Mada

    Department of Environmental Geography, Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jalan Kaliurang, Sekip Utara, Bulaksumur, Sleman 55281, Indonesia

  • Salut Muhidin, Macquarie University

    Department of Management, Macquarie Business School, Macquarie University, Balaclava Road, North Ryde (Wallumattagal Campus), New South Wales 2109, Australia

References

[1] Sukmaniar, Pitoyo AJ, Kurniawan A. Deviant behaviour in the slum community of Palembang city. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., vol. 683, 2021, p. 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/683/1/012129.

[2] Sik Lee K, Anas A. Costs of Deficient Infrastructure: The Case of Nigerian Manufacturing. Urban Studies 1992;29:1071–92. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420989220081051.

[3] Joshi N, Gerlak AK, Hannah C, Lopus S, Krell N, Evans T. Water insecurity, housing tenure, and the role of informal water services in Nairobi’s slum settlements. World Dev 2023;164:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106165.

[4] Bird J, Montebruno P, Regan T. Life in a slum: Understanding living conditions in Nairobi’s slums across time and space. Oxf Rev Econ Policy 2017;33:496–520. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx036.

[5] Hogrewe W, Joyce S, Perez E. Megacities and Global Change in East, Southeast and South Asia. 1993.

[6] Bappenas. Laporan Pencapaian Tujuan Pembangunan Milenium Indonesia 2010. 2010.

[7] Nations U. DG 11 Synthesis Report 2018: Tracking progress towards Inclusive, Safe, Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements, Nairobi, Kenya. 2018.

[8] Kuffer M, Pfeffer K, Sliuzas R. Slums from space-15 years of slum mapping using remote sensing. Remote Sens (Basel) 2016;8:1–29. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8060455.

[9] Kohli D, Sliuzas R, Kerle N, Stein A. An ontology of slums for image-based classification. Comput Environ Urban Syst 2012;36:154–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2011.11.001.

[10] Taubenböck H, Kraff NJ, Wurm M. The morphology of the Arrival City - A global categorization based on literature surveys and remotely sensed data. Applied Geography 2018;92:150–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.02.002.

[11] Nanda CA, Nugraha AL, Firdaus HS. Analisis Tingkat Daerah Rawan Kriminalitas Menggunakan Metode Kernel Density Di Wilayah Hukum Polrestabes Kota Semarang. Jurnal Geodesi Undip 2019;8:50–8.

[12] Alzamil WS. Evaluating Urban Status of Informal Settlements in Indonesia : A Comparative Analysis of Three Case Studies in North Jakarta. J Sustain Dev 2018;11:148–73. https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v11n4p148.

[13] Sukmaniar, Kurniawan A, Pitoyo AJ. Population characteristics and distribution patterns of slum areas in Palembang City: Getis ord gi∗ analysis. E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 200, 2020, p. 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020004005.

[14] Feler L, Henderson JV. Exclusionary policies in urban development: Under-servicing migrant households in Brazilian cities. J Urban Econ 2011;69:253–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2010.09.006.

[15] Marx B, Stoker T, Suri T. The economics of slums in the developing world. Journal of Economic Perspectives 2013;27:187–210. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.4.187.

[16] Gulyani S, Talukdar D, Bassett EM. A sharing economy? Unpacking demand and living conditions in the urban housing market in Kenya. World Dev 2018;109:57–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.04.007.

[17] Fox S. The Political Economy of Slums: Theory and Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. World Dev 2014;54:191–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.08.005.

[18] Gulyani S, Bassett EM. Retrieving the baby from the bathwater: Slum upgrading in Sub-Saharan Africa. Environ Plann C Gov Policy 2007;25:486–515. https://doi.org/10.1068/c4p.

[19] Duflo E, Galiani S, Mobarak M. Improving Access to Urban Services for the Poor. Abdul Latif Jamelle Poverty Action Lab Report 2012:1–44.

[20] Gruebner O, Khan MMH, Lautenbach S, Müller D, Kraemer A, Lakes T, et al. A spatial epidemiological analysis of self-rated mental health in the slums of Dhaka. Int J Health Geogr 2011;10:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-10-36.

[21] Ezeh A, Oyebode O, Satterthwaite D, Chen Y-F, Ndugwa R, Sartori J, et al. The history, geography, and sociology of slums and the health problems of people who live in slums. The Lancet 2017;389:547–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31650-6.

[22] Arsanti V, Kharisma RS, Ardiansyah I, Nugroho B, Ihsan Fajruna M, Zahra Deswanti L, et al. Spatial Analysis of Waste Management Facility Distribution Using GIS. Advance Sustainable Science, Engineering and Technology 2024;6:1–10. https://doi.org/10.26877/asset.v6i4.996.

[23] Sukmaniar, Kurniawan A, Pitoyo AJ. Hazard Level of Slum Areas in Palembang City. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., vol. 884, 2021, p. 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/884/1/012055.

[24] Lilford RJ, Oyebode O, Satterthwaite D, Melendez-Torres GJ, Chen YF, Mberu B. Improving the Health and Welfare of People who Live in Slums. The Lancet 2017;389:559–70.

[25] Croese S, Cirolia LR, Graham N. Towards Habitat III: Confronting the disjuncture between global policy and local practice on Africa’s “challenge of slums.” Habitat Int 2016;53:237–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.11.037.

[26] Nakamura S. Does slum formalisation without title provision stimulate housing improvement? A case of slum declaration in Pune, India. Urban Studies 2017;54:1715–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098016632433.

[27] Huchzermeyer M. Slum upgrading in Nairobi within the housing and basic services market: A housing rights concern. J Asian Afr Stud 2008;43:19–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909607085586.

[28] M. Bah E, Faye I, F. Geh Z. Housing market dynamics in Africa. Springer Nature; 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(88)90013-0.

[29] Quan J. Reflections on the Development Policy Environment For Land and Property Rights, 1997–2003. vol. Oktober. 2003.

[30] Marx B, Stoker T, Suri T. The economics of slums in the developing world. Journal of Economic Perspectives 2013;27:187–210. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.4.187.

[31] Deinlnger K, Binswanger H. The Evolution of the World Bank’s Land Policy: Principles, Experience, and Future Challenges. World Bank Res Obs 1999;14:247–76. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/14.2.247.

[32] Deininger K. Land policies for growth and poverty reduction. vol. 41. 2004. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.41-5396.

[33] Durand-Lasserve A, Fernandes E, Payne G, Rakodi C. Social and economic impacts of land titling programs in urban and periurban areas: A short review of the literature. Urban Land Markets: Improving Land Management for Successful Urbanization 2009:133–61. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8862-9_6.

[34] Lobo J, Alberti M, Allen-Dumas M. Urban Science: Integrated Theory from the First Cities to Sustainable Metropolises. SSRN Electronic Journal 2020. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3526992.

[35] Azhar A, Buttrey H, Ward PM. “Slumification” of Consolidated Informal Settlements: A Largely Unseen Challenge. Current Urban Studies 2021;09:315–42. https://doi.org/10.4236/cus.2021.93020.

Downloads

Published

2026-01-30

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026): November - January

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Advance Sustainable Science Engineering and Technology

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.